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How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
- Sales Rank: #1020241 in eBooks
- Published on: 2015-07-09
- Released on: 2015-07-09
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries.
(Wall Street Journal)
The Science of Conjecture opens an old chest of human attempts to draw order from havoc and wipes clean the rust from some cast-off classical tools that can now be reused to help build a framework for the unpredictable future.
(Science)
Franklin's style is clear and fluent, with an occasional sly Gibbonian aside to make the reader chuckle.
(New Criterion)
An admirably accessible study written in a crisp prose. It presents the reader with anarching historical perspective throughout many a century of human action.
(Giora Hon Centaurus)
Franklin gives a magisterial account of matters as diverse as the Talmud, Justinian's Digest, torture, witch hunts, Tudor treason trials, ancient and medieval astronomy and physics, humanist historiography, scholastic philosophy, speculations in public debt, and 17th century mathematics. His treatment of medieval law is among the best I have ever read.
(International Journal of Evidence and Proof)
Franklin's book is magnificent... Think of [it] as a non-fiction equivalent of Tolstoy's War and Peace.
(Peter Tillers The Jurist)
The Science of Conjecture is a masterly work, beautifully written, and based on encyclopaedic research... It is simply a tour de force that is unlikely to be surpassed for many a year.
(Barry Miller The Thomist)
Statistics teachers who like to sprinkle a little history and philosophy into their classes will find much here to delight and challenge them... This is a serious and scholarly work that I expect often will inform my teaching.
(Richard J. Cleary Journal of the American Statistical Association)
[This book has given me] sheer enjoyment in its density of strange information, in the wit and clarity if its writing, and in the vigour of its argumentation. I recommend it unreservedly to all interested in its subject.
(Oliver Mayo Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics)
This is the intellectual book of the year, and it ought to become one of the great classics of intellectual history.
(Scott Campbell Interdisciplinary Science Reviews)
The strength of The Science of Conjecture lies in its panoramic exposition of developments across the centuries and across intellectual disciplines and human endeavors. It is, as one reviewer wrote, 'a magesterial account of matters as diverse as the Talmud, Justinian's Digest, torture, witch hunts, Tudor treason trials, ancient and medieval astronomy and physics, humanist histriography, scholastic philosophy, speculations in public debt, and 17th century mathematics.'
(D. H. Kaye Law and History Review)
A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries. There are several reasons to read this book, but perhaps the best reason is its contemporary relevance. The lessons he discusses have pertinence to an age like ours, which has witnessed a gradual waning of faith in the objectivity of the relation of uncertain evidence to conclusion.
(Wall Street Journal)
The Science of Conjecture is an extraordinary work, a clearly written history of the ideas of evidence and of uncertainty before Pascal. Franklin has mastered a vast literature over thousands of years, bringing it together in scholarly fashion, fully annotated.
(Stephen Stigler, University of Chicago, author of The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900)
In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin shows us how deeply and subtly jurists and philosophers from ancient Greece onwards have explored how we can deal rationally with real-life cases (law cases, for instance, or scientific experiments) where the link between cause and effect is not obvious.
(J.M. Coetzee The Australian)
Since many in the nominalist/empiricist/positivist tradition deny that we can know natures, this book has a place in teacher education as well as legal education for the challenges it poses the reader on how we know, and how well we know, through induction, perception and abstraction.
(Metascience)
The text has an even wider importance in that it signals the need for more, not less, study of the history, philosophy and social studies in science to occupy a greater space in undergraduate degrees so that an educated electorate is better able to evaluate what the STEM community tells us is good for the progress of society.
(Metascience)
From the Back Cover
How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
"A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries."― Wall Street Journal
" The Science of Conjecture opens an old chest of human attempts to draw order from havoc and wipes clean the rust from some cast-off classical tools that can now be reused to help build a framework for the unpredictable future."― Science
"Franklin's style is clear and fluent, with an occasional sly Gibbonian aside to make the reader chuckle."― New Criterion
James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales.
About the Author
James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales.
Most helpful customer reviews
29 of 29 people found the following review helpful.
Stands above, way above other books on the history and philosophy of probability.
By N N Taleb
As a practitioner of probability, I've had to read many books on the subject. Most are linear combinations of other books and ideas rehashed without real understanding that the idea of probability harks back to the Greek pisteuo (credibility) [and pithanon that led to probabile in latin] and pervaded classical thought. Almost all of these writers made the mistake to think that the ancients were not into probability. And most books such as "Against the Gods" are not even wrong about the notion of probability: odds on coin flips are a mere footnote. Same with current experiments with psychology of probability. If the ancients were not into computable probabilities, it was not because of theology, but because they were not into highly standardized games. They dealt with complex decisions, not merely simplified and purified probability. And they were very sophisticated at it.
The author is both a mathematician and a philosopher, not a philosopher who took a calculus class hence has a shallow idea of combinatorics and feels dominated by the subject, something that plagues the subject of the philosophy of probability.
This book stands above, way above the rest: I've never seen a deeper exposition of the subject, as this text covers, in addition to the mathematical bases, the true philosophical origin of the notion of probability. Finally, Franklin covers matters related to ethics and contract law, such as the works of the medieval thinker Pierre de Jean Olivi, that very few people discuss today.
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